Linked from Formulation Notes
TOC: Perspective | Staff | Budget | Bush & Gore

Transition NoteTaker

The United States faces a transition in its Presidency following an inconclusive, tightly contested election in November 2000. George W. Bush and Al Gore have campaigned for months, only to deadlock in Florida.

Whatever the outcome, the Presidency will transfer from William Clinton to his successor. These transitionary times raise a host of repercussions for the study of public policy. I will treat some of them here.

My notes, presented in outline format, should help you understand some of the important aspects of the transition.

Overall Perspective Re Transition î

• Although transition only happens every 4 to 8 years, it remains a critical aspect of public policy.
• Inauguration set by Constitution as January 20, about 11 weeks after election, so happens fast.
• Presidential Transition Act of 1963, proposed by JFK, provides office space, communications, and slight budget. Most will work for free.
• Essential variable: Same party as in power? Contrast Gore with Bush. Recall Reagan after Carter and Clinton after Bush
• Transition requires agenda setting and policy formulation, so connects the two. Compressed time allows unusual laboratory.
• Campaign has largely set agenda already through campaign commitments --- often the basis of a claimed mandate ---, but now needs to act, moving right through agenda to policy analysis.
• A shrewd anticipation done by Carter and Reagan: Set up transition process outside campaign. Carter had 29 or so committees, rather cumbersome since Carter wanted to screen everything. Reagan has set up Shadow Government in San Clemente. See pp. 16-18.
• New president at his weakest:
  • Exhausted from grueling campaign, often 2 years in duration.
  • Personnel not in place.
  • Campaign staff not necessarily best to govern, so pressure of patronage must be sorted out.
• Time is short and public perception suggests that President has 100 days, the FDR standard, meaning results by May 1 or so. Perceptions will soon be locked in place. Looming is next Congressional election, when party in power usually gets clobbered.
• Most difficult transition has these characteristics:
  • Change of party in power
  • Prior presidential term was 8 years
  • Divided government: Congress in hands of party not in power.
  • Close election, so no clear mandate provided by landslide election.

The Staff, Cabinet and Cast of 4,000 î

Congratulations, Mr. or, perhaps in the future, Ms. President, you have won a great victory. The first tough call to make is this: Your campaign staff must be essentially fired, even though they have worked doggedly for you for years! Governing, not campagning, has become the agenda. Yet, loyalty must be given and patronage has been expected. See p. 5.

• Choice of model between
  • Strong or weak cabinet, with the latter the norm over the last 20 years. Ike last to use the Cabinet as staff, even with his overbearing chief of staff. (Reagan fell asleep at Cabinet meetings and did not get names straight. Nixon had scorn for the Cabinet as sychophants.)
  • Which model of organization within the White House: strong chief of staff or committees reporting to you like spokes of the wheel, as done by JFK, Carter, and Ford, although it soon failed. Strong chief of staff model now seen as only real choice.
  • Access: Reagan most limited, Clinton and JFK most open.
• Chief of staff is the critical choice. Note that when Reagan switched to Donald Regan from James Baker, along came Iran-Contra affair which damaged Reagan's last 2 years.
• The President makes about 4,000 appointments, who must all be screened, plus other vacancies, such as Federal judges and a myriad of Boards and Commissions. The permanent government, totally distrusted especially after switch in party, is viewed as hostile and threatened. New personnel must often sell and buy houses, move family, and totally disrupt career paths. Not easy, but time is short and events must happen quickly.

Budget î

A major dilemma of the President-elect, especially if a shift in party occurs, is that the lame-duck budget, presumably passed before the election, will not give the new president his or her own budget for about 20 months --- nearly half the term of office. The federal fiscal year, which starts in October, has already begun, and the detailed and complex budget planning process for the next fiscal year is well under way. There are other constraints:

1. Nearly 75% of the federal budget has been locked in, through entitlements and required spending, such as interest payment on the national debt. Discretionary spending comprises perhaps 25%, and changes there require detailed bargaining.
2. Budgets are estimates of future events, and the future will for sure change. Revenue depends on the state of the economy, and most forecasts are optimistic.
3. Fiscal policy, the steering of the national economy, will intrude. Since the new administration will inevitably be held responsible for the state of the economy, spending and taxation will be used as aggregate policy instruments, interfering with campaign promises and policy choices concerning the specific components.
4. The budget is not the property of the executive branch, although the Office of Management and Budget works out of the White House. House and Senate committees must be involved, and commitments have been made therein. If the same party controls both the legislature and the executive branch, compromise might be easier. Friction and complications make the budget process highly contentious and cumbersome.

The Current Conundrum ^

As I write, Florida has not been decided, so we do not know who will be the next president. Bush enjoys narrow GOP control of Congress, but remains outside. Gore enjoys continuity with the Clinton administration, but will inevitably face gridlock in Congress. Either suffers from such a tightly contested and controversial election. Claiming mandates will be unconvincing.

Governor George W. Bush has been put at a major disadvantage:

• Period for his transition will have been cut short by Florida recount and protocol to wait until results of election finalized, signified when Gore again concedes.
• The close election and bad feelings all around will badly hamper his transition. Many Americans already find outcome tainted, severely weakening legitimacy of new president.
• Congress has been nearly evenly divided, although the GOP narrowly controls the House but, if Bush is declared President, for the first time in US history, the Senate is 50-50, with ties broken by the VP. Should Gore win, VP Lieberman will leave his Senate seat and the GOP governor of Connecticut will appoint a Republican. No matter, the Senate, like the House, will be split.
• VP Cheney, a Beltway veteran, former chief of staff for President Ford, runs transition.
• James D. Baker III, a neighbor of George Bush and former Reagan Chief-of-Staff --- and probably the best in the biz --- has already emerged as spokesperson for Gov. Bush

Vice-President Al Gore follows Clinton, so he remains comfortable with allies in power. Much to do, but not nearly as demanding as Bush's transition. He suffers from GOP control of House and Senate, as did Clinton.

Notes re transition taken from Strategic Presidency by James Pfiffner.