Food and Hunger

Brown rightly links food and population: Feeding Eight Billion Well. How about nine billion later?

Brown sounds the alarm here concerning the centrality of food, given constraints and relentless population growth. Be concerned. Much of Plan B expresses concern about decline of global grain reserves per capita.

Context: threats abound as world enters a new food era.

Past success, uneven, is no guide to the future. Brown, an agronomist with vast experience, sees a danger in the emerging geopolitics of food scarcity. Three threats stand out:

1. Population increases, especially in failed states;
2. Land grabs in poor countries by richer countries to supplement their own loss of agricultural carrying capacity. This is often the outcome of a failed state in the host nation.
3. Water scarcity, such that importing food is a device for obtaining water from another region.
4. Diminishing returns from Green Revolution style increases in productivity from herbicides and fertilizer-intensive agricultural. This is reflected in declining grain surpluses.

A quick survey: good news in China. Mixed in India and dire in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Useful quick survey, specific and concise -- good policy analysis.

But the number of hungry people is growing: 820 million in 2000 to 852 million in 2002.

Brown acknowledges progress but remains cautious and concerned. He is a good forecaster of trends. See U.N. Food and Food and Agriculture Organization index. Follow the prospects for food and nutrition. Global Issues offers several recent articles on hunger.

Note: Brown is an agronomist, so food and hunger is his forte.

Brown is recognized as a leading international expert, for decades now. He took the lead in specifying the link between biofuels and grain production.

Brown is concerned. The 300% increase in global harvests since 1950 may be slowing down.

Brown notes a loss of momentum in global harvests, especially grain. Brown explicitly recognizes past success, such as the Green Revolution, but warns about future trends. The diversion of food to fuel is a great concern to Brown.

Recall the coverage of soil conservation and water.

Need both for agriculture. Ditto energy and climate change, all of which reduce agricultural capacity while food demands increase with population.

Brown concisely explains the loss of momentum in food production. Yet, each year, there are 70 million more people to feed -- and many want meat.

Brown at his best, concisely explaining an uncomfortable and complex area of concern, at a global and regional level. Brown frequently raises his concern that food shortages and failed states will erode basic human civilization.

One ton of grain requires 1,000 tons of water. Conserve water. How? Brown wants investment, pricing, ending subsidies to users, and moving down the food chain.

Brown here asks for two economic policies: cut subsidies to water users and put higher prices on water users. He implicitly supports keeping water supply as a public good. Controversy, touching on the touchy issue of water privatization. Public Citizen documents some troublesome cases.

And what of protein? Answer: shift to aquaculture, poultry, and soybeans.

Brown offers a detailed overview of trends for each major protein source. The shift is efficient: away from beef and pork toward soybean, dairy, selective farmed fish, and poultry. Brown does not wish to stop the spread of protein within poor countries.

Manage demand: move down the food chain.

Brown deplores the divergence of corn from food to fuel. He sees better food choices as a strategic component in addressing hunger. Much detail here but Brown, the agronomist, prefers a plant solution. Veggan diet, anyone?

Protein and food progress comes from inventive regional and local solutions.

Food and agriculture is regional, depending on food culture, climate, and local conditions, such as water and soil. Brown surveys impressive progress around the developing world, such as China and India. Note that this progress is not the result of agribusiness or the extension of the Green Revolution.

Brown summarizes: actions on many fronts.

Brown has surveyed innovative trends in many areas, pointing to local and regional solutions in food and agriculture. We also continue this theme when with Bill McKibben, Deep Economy.

Thus closing a well researched chapter on food and hunger by an expert. I am still concerned and feel that Brown is overly optimistic. What do you think, social team?