Poverty and Population

Brown first takes on global poverty and population, in around 16 pages!

Notice where Brown begins his policy discussion, within the legacy of Malthus: slow population growth and increase food supply. Brown does not blame overpopulation but recognizes constraining population growth will faciitate sustainability. Notice that Brown recognizes improvements in poverty but sees a slow down due to population expansion of around 70 million per year.

Great news: the success of U.N. Millennium Project.

This incredible and largely effective project appears to be achieving results. We will briefly tour the web site. And who is its executive, Jeffrey Sachs? Notice how this project fits with World on the Edge. Get recent statistics and trends on poverty and inequality from Global Issues. Note that World Bank data indicates that, excluding China, global poverty numbers have not declined since 1981.

Major achievements: China and India. Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (750 million people) and parts of Latin America and Central Asia.

China's poverty drops from 685 million in 1990 to 213 million in 2007. Rates of economic growth are high and unsustainable: China 9%, India about 8%. Note throughout book, Brown sees slowdown due to stress on natural systems and decline in food production. Brown accepts that U.N. Millennium poverty goal of halving global poverty will be achieved by 2015. Sub-Saharan Africa is the major humanitarian challenge. Brown concludes his introduction with a summary.

Brown warns that hunger and food prices are rising.

Brown reiterates his stark warning, early in his book, that hunger is rising and food carrying capacity is being undermiined. Hunger had diminshed to 825 million in the 1990s, but has risen to over one billion in 2009. The primary cause, says Brown, is the diversion of grain to fuel for automobiles, enough to feed 340 million. Prices rising means hunger rising. A Best Practice is to educate women about fertility. Note again trends and conditions concerning women in the global economy.

First step: universal basic education for all. Focus on the policy discussion.

Focus is on children, 115 million with virtually no education. Consider Sen quote. Focus on the policy discussion, one of the most important sections in the book. Notice focus on educating girls as the most important policy prescription of all. Notice that Brown aims at the reduction in inequality through education but without challenging economic globalization. Is this the way?

Stabilizing population. Best case: 7.8 billion, likely 9.1 billion, high forecast of 11 billion. Note three demographic groups of nations.

Basic summary is essential, so let's focus. Raises a fundamental issue here. How can the planet sustain an extra 3 to 5 billion people? Stresses already exist on critical support systems such as water, soil, forests, energy, and agriculture.

Key policy proposal: family planning services. Brown cites modest cost, noting 201 million women excluded.

Benefits, enormous; costs, minimal. Note case of Iran. Note detailed discussion and conclusions. The rights and status of women is basic to the social dimension of World Sustainability. See Clnton Global Initiative reading list on investing in girls and women. Religion factors into this topic.

Health: Brown contrasts health concerns of rich and poor. Vaccination costs pennies. Water essential.

Brown calls for common-sense public health policies and notes the modest costs and high costs of doing otherwise.

Tobacco is still on the agenda worldwide

Some success but isn't this obvious?

Much progress on eradicating smallpox, polio

Due to CSO and WHO.

Brown's budget of $33 billion per year can provide universal health care, or at least major improvements.

Brown has carefully proposed a targeted and feasible policy and has provided a budget estimate.

HIV scourge, especially in Africa. Prevent spread through education, testing, condoms, and focus on target groups.

Again, Brown provides quick overview and targets a policy. Note his conclusion.

Some political economics: farm subsidies and debt relief. Brief foray into debt for nature swaps.

Brown examines in particular subsidies to cotton and sugar industry in rich nations, holding back economic growth in poor regions. Lots of policy leverage can be achieved with debt relief in return for sustainability policies. Ironically, the rich countries are practicing protectionism that harms poorer countries. (Cutting back on perverse subsidies is basic to a Strategic Sustainability.)

Aside: Wealth flows from poor countries to rich countries.

How can this happen? Economic globalization predicts the inverse: Historically, the global balance sheet has favored poor countries. But with the advent of globalized markets, capital began to move in the other direction, and the South now exports capital to the North, at a skyrocketing rate. According to the United Nations, in 2006 the net transfer of capital from poorer countries to rich ones was $784 billion, up from $229 billion in 2002. (In 1997, the balance was even.) Even the poorest countries, like those in sub-Saharan Africa, are now money exporters. (Tina Rosenberg, Reverse Foreign Aid, New York Times: March 25, 2007)

Brown provides a poverty eradication budget based on education and public health policy. Cost estimate: $75 billion per year.

Brown summarizes and provides specifics and cost estimates. This seemingly unreachable goal appears feasible. Really?