Rainforest Scenarios


Export Driven Model

Social Ecology Model

World Bank

Maximize exports. Support Brazilian government, no matter what. Resist opposition.

Funding and lending agencies have obligation to negotiate and to form consensus. Must commission sustainability impact study prior to any action.

Brazilian Government

Obtain external grants and loans. Pay off debt with export earnings. Subsidize exports. Alleviate immediate political pressures. Align with elite interests?

Devolve. Encourage local and regional participation in broad, long-term planning process.

Regional Government: Rondonia

Maximize growth through loans, grants, migrants.

Choose development wisely after broad consultation.


Willing, hopeful, but passive colonists, desperate for land, but pawns in the game.

Target benefit population who must participate in planning process.

Native Tribes

Get in the way, so must be removed for progress.

Must be carefully approached for consultation. Major obligation to leave undisturbed. Their situation must improve.

Rubber Tappers, Forest Workers

Get in the way, so must be removed for progress. Chico Mendez assassinated.

Must be carefully approached for consultation. Research their resources, methods. Work with them to increase productivity of forest habitat. Diversify economic opportunities. Provide micro-loans.

Silent Player: Women Within Forest

Not acknowledged directly.

Examine plight of women and children, such as health and habitat needs. Must participate in planning process. Micro-loans?

Silent Player: Rain Forest

No explicit or implicit rights. Resource to be exploited or obstacle to be removed.

Forest must be left better than found. Restoration remains priority. Harvesting must be sustainable. Study intensively.

Silent Player: Flora and Fauna

No explicit or implicit rights. Resource to be exploited or obstacle to be removed.

Species must be left better than found. Restoration remains priority. Study intensively. No threats to extinction. Habitat must be respected.

Silent Player: Land Owners

Colonizing forests elsewhere allows enclosure, resettling peasants

Land reform, but owners must be compensated and participate. Past abuses must be redressed.

Silent Player: Road Builders

Want contracts. Support political elite. Bribery? Chicanery?

Only a legitimate player if road construction within comprehensive plan.

Potential Player: Global Civil Society

Not involved into crisis hits, then intrude at WB, other funders, U.S. Senate. Reactive.

Enjoy standing in planning process. Raise funds, awareness, international coordination and advocacy as needed.

Potential Player: Pharma

Not involved.

Opportunity for study of herbs and native remedies as partnership with native tribes. Share benefits and secure land rights.

The Scenario

A scenario postulates an explicit script for a dynamic overview of a field of action, a reasonable simulation. The scenario provides context for analysis, synopsis, alternatives, and discussion:

A scenario is also an account or synopsis of a projected course of action, events or situations. Scenario development is used in policy planning, organizational development and, generally, when organizations wish to test strategies against uncertain future developments.
Wikipedia, Scenario

Scenarios help explain complex situations and involve multiple stakeholders in thinking though their actions and alternatives. The Scenario & Development web site puts it this way: Scenarios do the following:

The table above deconstructs the opening film of the course, Banking on Disaster:

  1. The players, even those neglected and potential, are listed in the left column. This includes non-human participants in the drama: the forests, other eco-systems, plants, animals and other species.
  2. The interests and behavior of each player in the export driven model (aka, Washington Consensus) instituted by the World Bank is listed in the middle column.
  3. The Social Ecology alternative is provided in the right column.

The case study contrasts the Washington Consensus and the Social Ecology alternative. This opens up the process and implications of Social Ecology and contrasts Social Ecology with the prevailing Washington Consensus.

The Social Ecology process utilizes skills in scenario development and consensus building. We will discuss all this in class.

Wayne Hayes, Ph.D. | Initialized: 3/4/2007 | Last Update: 3/8/2007