CDP foresees $1T in next five years, but partial survey.
This calculation requires close attention:
- Stern sees substantial underestimation of damage and out-of-pocket costs. Further, will hit sooner and harder.
- Infrastructure SOC investment will be immense and unfair, exacerbating inequality and exclusion.
- However, a Kondratieff Cycle may be forming as public-private coalitions form and as plutocrats segregate themselves in armored enclaves.
- The fiscal burden cannot be sustained, will distort interest rates (must be permanently low to forestall bankruptcy of sovereigns), and triage sacrifice zones of poor multitudes, who will be forcefully prevented from migration.
- Productive investments will be crowded out by the emergencies such as fires, floods, droughts, vast unimaginable inundations.
- Food supplies, perhaps adequate in the aggregate, will fall short regionally, producing mass famine.
- Mortality and population will fall sharply starting perhaps in 2025 Die Off — population forecasts will have been overly optimistic.
- Consumption expenditures will be precluded but despite deep bias against the Multitudes, demand will fall short: other than Kondratieff Cycle, private monetized economy will sharply decline.